Analysis/Forecast for Hurricane Irene and its Effects on New England and Eastern NY

Good Evening Everyone

A). Latest Update on Irene...


We have a dangerous storm on our hands located near the bahamas.  As of 11 P.M, Irene was a strong Category three Hurricane with max sustained winds of 120 mph and a pressure of 952 MB.  Hurricane Irene is moving to the northwest at 12 mph.  It is currently located in the southern part of the Bahamian Islands. 

B). Analysis

Here is a link that shows the Infrared satellite image of Hurricane Irene. 
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201109_sat.html


   -This Infrared satellite image shows the temperature of the cloud tops.  The Maroon, Red, and white colors represent the coldest cloud temperatures in the storm.  Whenever you see these cloud temperatures,  it is a good indication of rapid intensification.  Irene is projected to become a Category 4 hurricane by tomorrow afternoon.  Afterwards, It will weaken slowly due to the cooler waters of the North Atlantic, yet remain a strong storm with category 1 and 2 strength.


1). Set up for a possible landfalling Irene this weekend


    During the weekend,  A trough will be positioned over the Great Lakes.   A Bermuda High will be positioned to the south and east.  This will allow the storm to be pushed to the north-northeast and remain along or near the coast.   A question to still be answered is how far west will the trough dig in.  This will play a critical role for where Hurricane Irene will make landfall.  A Trough farther to the north or west would allow the storm to make landfall further west.  If the trough digs in further to the east and south, the storm will make landfall or move more to the east.  In the next section, I tell you what the latest model runs are showing for Irene.

C).  Some Forecast Models


 0Z Navy Model
- This model has Hurricane Irene tracking more to the east and making a close landfall over Nantucket, and Martha's Vineyard Sunday Evening.


0Z GFS Model
-This model has the storm making landfall over Buzzard Bay and the Cape/ Islands Sunday Evening. 


0z GHM Hurricane Model
-This model has the storm making landfall over Long Island and crossing the sound into Western CT late Sunday evening into early Monday morning. 


0z HWRF Hurricane Model
-This model has Hurricane Irene making landfall on the Southern Jersey Shore Sunday early evening.



D). Effects from a landfalling Hurricane Irene 


1). Estimated Rainfall Amounts through Monday Evening


GFS Model
6-10 + inches of rain across much of Southern New England, 3-6 inches of rain across Eastern NY, and 4-8 inches across much of Northern New England. 


NOGAPS Model
5-10 + inches across much of Southern New England, 2-5 inches + across much of Northern New England , and 2-4 inches + across Eastern NY. 


2).  Storm Surge


-There will be new moon present Sunday Night, making for astronomical high tide. 
-If Hurricane Irene makes landfall as a category two hurricane, the storm surge would be 6-8 ft. 
-If Hurricane Irene makes landfall as a category one hurricane, the storm surge would be 4-5 ft.
-The highest storm surge is always in the upper right hand quadrant or east-northeastern part of a Hurricane. 


3).  Winds


-If Hurricane  Irene makes landfall as a category two storm, the winds will be between 96-110 mph. 
-If Hurricane Irene makes landfall as a category one storm, the winds will be between 74-95 mph. 
-The strongest winds in a Hurricane are always to the east-northeast or the upper right quadrant of a storm.
-Where ever Hurricane Irene makes landfall in the northeeast, A larger part of the region will still be susceptible to strong winds even if quiet a distance from the coast. 


E). My Gut feeling for now....


I am predicting Hurricane Irene to make landfall between Narrangansett Bay and Cape Cod early Sunday Evening as a weak category two storm with winds around 95 mph.  This scenario would bring a lot of flooding rains to much of the region.  The Cape and the Islands would have the greatest threat of storm surge, waves, and damaging winds.  Tropical storm winds would impact  a lot of Southern New England.   There would be tornado threat for Southeast MA.  A lot of trees will be damaged due to saturating grounds from the heavy rains and tropical storms force winds knocking trees down, resulting in a lot of power outages.  A lot of coastal roads across Maine and Southern New England could become impassible due to wash over from waves.  There would be isolated tornados across Eastern MA and the Cape/Islands. 


F). What to do if you  live near or along the coast


Here is a link for hurricane prepardness...


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/prepare/supply_kit.shtml




Final Note


The Track of Hurricane Irene can always change due to the surrounding environment.  As always, stay tuned to the news, weather sites, and my blogs for further updates of hurricane Irene.


NHC
NWS 
PENN STATE Electronic WX Wall
Navy Model
GFS Model
GHM Model
HWRF Model
NOAA
Weather Underground
Unisys Weather