Good morning Everyone
Analysis
Currently, there is an upper level low across Western NY. It will move to the north-northeast and weaken with time. There is a stationary front positioned off the coast of Long Island and New England. A low will move off the delmarva peninsula/ New Jersey coast and move northeast overnight through the day Monday. It will bring a lot of moisture into the region. The Heavy showers and storms will begin to become more numerous overnight through the morning. The precipitation will move from south to north throughout the day. Expect heavy downpours within the showers and storms.
Updated Rainfall estimations through tuesday morning
3-5 + inches of rain across parts of Western MA and Western CT.
2-4 + inches of rain across most of Southern New England, Eastern New York, and much of Northern New England.
1-2 inches of rain across Northern and North Central Maine
-Rainfall amounts may vary due to the where the concentration of the heavy rain sets up.
There is a stationary front across Northern New York and the province of Quebec. A cold front will move through the region Late monday/ Tuesday and bring some dryer air behind it. High pressure will move into the region Wednesday. The humidity will return for the day Thursday. Another cold front will move through the area late Thursday /early Friday. It will stall over New England. Yet, another disturbance will move along the stationary front and bring some showers and storms to the northeast for the day Friday thru Saturday.
Tracking the radars.....
-Here is a look at the radar for Eastern NY, and parts of Western New England.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ENX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
-Here is a look at the radar for Southern New England.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=box&loop=yes
-Here is a look at the radar for Northern New York and Vermont.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=cxx&loop=yes
-Here is a look at the radar for New Hampshire, Southern and Downeast Maine.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=gyx&loop=yes
Monday, August 15th
Mostly cloudy with Showers and storms in the morning. Downpours are likely. Rain will end slowly from south to north throughout the day. High temperatures in the 60s and 70s. winds from the east-northeast at 5-15 mph with higher gusts possible along the coast. Low temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Winds from the north-northeast switching to north-northwest overnight at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts possible.
Tuesday, August 16th
Patchy Fog across Southern New England and Eastern New York. Mostly cloudy with heavy showers and storms across Northern New England, left over showers across Southern New England and Eastern New York in the morning. Some downpours are possible. Partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated storms in the afternoon and evening. High temperatures in the 60s and 70s to near 80. Winds from the west-northwest at 5-10 mph with higher gusts possible. Low temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Winds from the north-northwest at 5-10 mph with higher gusts possible.
Wednesday, August 17th
Mostly sunny in the morning. Sun and clouds in the afternoon. High temperatures in the 60s and 70s across Northern New England, 70s and 80s across Southern New England and Eastern New York. Winds from the west-northwest at 5-10 mph with higher gusts possible. Low temperatures in the 60s to near 70. Winds from the south-southwest at 5-10 mph with higher gusts possible across Eastern NY and Northern New England. Winds from the west-northwest at 5-10 mph with higher gusts possible across Southern New England.
Thursday, August 18th
Mostly sunny in the morning. Clouds building late morning through the afternoon. Scattered showers and storms in the afternoon and evening. Humidity returns. High temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Winds from the west-southwest at 5-15 mph with higher gusts possible along the coast. Low temperatures in the 60s to near 70. Winds from the south-southwest at 5-10 mph with higher gusts possible.
Friday, August 19th
Patchy fog in the morning. Scattered showers and storms in the morning across parts of Eastern NY, and Western New England. Scattered showers and storms in the afternoon across the region. The greatest threat for precipitation will be across Eastern NY and Western NE. There may be some downpours with some showers and storms. High temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Winds from the south-southwest at 5-15 mph with higher gusts possible along the coast. Low temperatures in the 60s to near 70. Winds from the west-southwest at 5-10 mph with higher gusts possible along the coast.
-Unisys weather
-GFS Model
-NAM Model
-Euro Model
-SREF Model
-NWS Surface Analysis
-NWS Doppler Radars
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