Noon update

-I will post a new 5 day forecast later this evening....


Heads up weather and analysis


    An upper level low, over western will continue  to weaken and move to the east.  It was responsible for some showers this morning.   A low off pressure over the mid-atlantic region will move off the coast  of New Jersey and will slowly move up the coast this afternoon and evening.  It will bring about a lot of moisture into Eastern New York and New England.  Heavy showers and storms will be present later this afternoon and evening, starting in parts of Eastern NY and Western New England.   Downpours likely!  It will slowly move to the north and east throughout the evening into the day tomorrow.   A cold front will move through the region by Tuesday. 


Rainfall Estimations through tomorrow
  
3-5 + inches of rain across most of Southern New England, Eastern NY, and Southern Portions of Vermont and New Hampshire.   Amounts may vary due to who sees the most consistent heavy showers and storms.  


Tracking the Rain
Here is a look at the radar for Eastern New york and parts of Western New England    ....http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ENX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Here is a look at the radar for Southern New England....
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=box&loop=yes

Here is a look at the radar for much of Northern Vermont ....
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=cxx&loop=yes

Here is a look at the radar for New Hampshire and for Southern and downeast Maine.....http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=gyx&loop=yes


Monday, August 15th

   Heavy showers and storms across most of the region.  The heaviest of the rains in the morning appears to be over Eastern New York and Western New England.    Scattered showers and storms will slowly continue to move toward the north and east throughout the afternoon and evening.  Downpours likely.   High temperatures in the 60s and 70s to near 80.  Winds from the east-southeast at 5-15 mph with higher gusts possible near the coast.  Low temperatures in the 50 and 60s to near 70.  Winds from the west-southwest at 5-15 mph with higher gusts possible along the coast.

Stay Dry!

-NWS surface Analysis map
-GFS model
-NAM model
-SREF Model