Hurricane Irene Update

Good Evening Everyone

11P.M  Thursday Hurricane Irene Update
Irene has max sustained winds of 115 mph and has 942 mb of pressure.  The storm is moving to the north at 14 mph.  Here is a current infrared satellite image of the storm.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201109_sat.html

This image shows the cloud top temperatures.  The brighter the color, the colder the cloud tops are.  This is a good indication of the storm strengthening.  The eye wall is going through cycles of development and dissipation.  In this image, the eye wall is present.   However,  the storm will continue to strengthening within the next 24 hours before entering cooler waters and making landfall over Eastern North Carolina.

Model Runs
Here is a link of the model runs....
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201109_model.html

-Every model has a consensus of Hurricane Irene grazing or making landfall over the Outer Banks and the Eastern mainland of North Carolina.

-4  models track the storm more inland toward Eastern North Carolina and Virginia.   This scenario would weaken the storm.  Afterward, the storm would track up the Chesapeake Bay and continue along the I 95 corridor toward New York City.  The storm track would track across Eastern NY and Western New England.  This scenario would have North Carolina and the Chesapeake Region of the Mid Atlantic taking the brunt of the devastation.  By the time the storm would reach New England and NY, it would be a strong Tropical Storm.  The storm would still have a big impact with some storm surge and waves across Coastal Southern New England.  Tropical storm force winds would occur across a huge chunk of the region with a threat of isolated tornadoes across New England.  Heavy rain with the combination of super saturated grounds could cause wide spread tree damage and power outrages across the region.

-2 of the models have Hurricane Irene moving off the Outer Banks of North Carolina and making a second landfall take place across Eastern Long Island and Eastern CT/ Rhode Island.  This scenario would be more devastating for New England.  The storm would maintain hurricane Status as a strong cat 1/cat 2 storm.   Long Island Sound, Narragansett Bay, and Buzzards Bay would be highly susceptible for storm surge and waves.   This along with high tide would cause devastating flooding.  Hurricane strength winds would be present across a lot of Southeast MA,  Rhode Island, and Eastern CT.  Tropical Storm force wind would be present across a large chunk of New England.  Isolated Tornadoes would occur across Southeast MA.  Heavy Rains would be present across Eastern NY and Western New England.  The Combination of heavy rains and hurricane force winds/ tropical storm winds would cause wide spread tree damage and power outrages across the region.

-A Strong aspect about Hurricane Irene is that this storm will produce a tropical storm and hurricane force winds hundreds of miles away from the center of the storm.  Where ever the storm tracks,  impacts will be felt for many.

-Here is a link of a box that shows the different categories of a hurricane....
http://www.cotf.edu/ete/modules/sevweath/swintensity2.html

Rainfall predictions
SREF Model
-Most of New England and Eastern NY would receive over 4 inches of Rainfall.
GFS Model
-5-8 inches of rain across Eastern N.  2-5 inches across New England.
CMZ Model
-1-3 inches of rain across Eastern NY and Northern Vermont.  3-10 inches of rain across much of New England.
NOGAPS Model
-4-8 inches of rain across much of Southern New England and Eastern NY.

Here is a link that shows the flash flood guidance across the region.  This tells us how much rain it takes to create flash flooding.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/ffg.php?duration=3&location=MA  -Southern NE

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/ffg.php?duration=3&location=NY -Eastern NY

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/ffg.php?duration=3&location=ME -Northern NE

-As usually, the track of the storm can change due to the surrounding environment.  As of now, there is a strong probability of high impact across much of New England and Eastern NY.  Right now, I am leaning toward the storm making landfall over Western Long Island and crossing the sound across Western CT between Stamford and New Haven.   If you live in a low lying area or live along the coast, prepare to go over your evacuation plan and stay up to date with updates on Hurricane Irene.

If you have any questions regarding Hurricane Irene, feel free to ask me.


-NHC
-Penn State Electronic Wx Wall
-Weather Underground Hurricane Irene Graphics
-NWS Tropical Model Runs
-SREF Model