Update on Hurricane Irene

Good Afternoon

Current Status of Irene as of the 11A.M update

Irene is a category 1 Hurricane with max sustained winds of 85 mph and a central pressure measure of 952 MB.  It made landfall near Cape Lookout, NC and is  currently over the sound between the  Outer Banks  and Eastern North Carolina moving to the north-northeast at 14 mph.

-Here is a current Satellite of the storm.
 http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201109_sat.html

This illustrates how large the storm is in size and that millions of people will feel some type of impact across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Computer Models


All the computer models are in an agreement that the storm will make landfall somewhere between the Jersey shore and Westerly Rhode Island.

 Two of the models have Irene making landfall on the Delmarva Peninsula and afterward moving toward NJ and NY.

4 Models show Irene moving off the Outer Banks of North Carolina and making a second landfall over Long Island.  Afterward, the storm would continue to move to the north-northeast across the sound into Eastern Connecticut and the rest of New England.

Here is a link that allows you to see the latest on the computer models...
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201109_model.html

My Forecast of Hurricane Irene across New England and Eastern NY


Irene makes landfall Sunday morning/ afternoon across Western Long Island as a Strong Tropical Storm or weak Category One Hurricane and crosses the sound towards Coastal CT or the New Haven area.  Afterward , the storm continues to move to the north-northeast across Northern CT,  Central MA,  Southern NH, and Western ME.  The worst storm impacts will be felt in the right front quadrant of the storm.  Areas such as Eastern CT, RI,  and parts of Southeast MA will receive the strongest winds between 65-74 mph with higher gusts possible,  storm surge between 3-7 feet on top of the high tide and waves, Heavy rain, and Isolated Tornadoes.   Areas such as interior  Southern New England will experience tropical storm winds between 50-74 mph.  It will be accompanied with torrential rains,  and Isolated Tornadoes, especially across Eastern MA and RI.  Areas of Northern New England and Eastern NY will experience torrential rains,  and strong winds between 40-65 mph.

A). Updated Storm Surge

Here are some links that show what type of Storm surge would occur and what areas need to watch for flooding across coastal Southern New England....

http://www.weather.gov/mdl/psurge/active.php?Ty=e10&Th=10&Z=y38

http://www.weather.gov/mdl/psurge/active.php?Ty=e10&Th=10&Z=y40

http://www.weather.gov/mdl/psurge/active.php?Ty=e10&Th=10&Z=y41

http://www.weather.gov/mdl/psurge/active.php?Ty=e10&Th=10&Z=y42

http://www.weather.gov/mdl/psurge/active.php?Ty=e10&Th=10&Z=y43

These maps illustrate how much storm surge is to occur over the region as of now from Irene.  It also tells you how much surge it takes to flood the land.  However, these maps over due some areas that might flood when there are higher in elevation.  However,  It gives you a good perspective of how susceptible this region is to flooding.   With a category one storm or strong tropical storm, the storm surge on average for most coastal communities will be in the range of 3-7 feet.   The worst aspect of this storm is that is will arrive
Sunday afternoon and evening and produce waves and storm surge during Astronomical High Tide.   Communities in harbors and coves are more susceptible to damage more narrow water ways.

B). Rainfall
-12z GFS Run 
-Rainfall amounts thru Noon Monday
The rainfall from this tropical system is going to be catastrophic to parts of the region.
  
    1). Eastern NY
         5-10 inches
    2). Northern New England
         5-10 inches across most of Vermont
         4-5 + inches across New Hampshire
         2-4 + inches across Western and Southern Maine
         1-2 + inches across Northern and Downeast Maine
     3). Southern New England
         5-10 inches across the Western and Central MA, and most of Connecticut.
         2-5+ inches of rain across Eastern MA, and Rhode Island.
         1-2+ inches of rain across the Cape and the Islands
Impacts

1), Eastern NY and most of NE
The greatest impact will be the flooding across the region.  Over the past few weeks, this region has received a lot of rain from previous storms and fronts.  The ground is highly saturated.  Any more rain on top of this will weaken the roots of trees and cause flash flooding on Rivers and Creeks.  With the tree roots being saturated,  the trees would become more susceptible to being knocked over by the strong winds.  Scattered power outrages will be common across the region. There will also be a slight risk of isolated tornadoes across Eastern MA, and RI.

2). Coastal Souther NE
Areas of Coastal Southern New England will have to deal with the possibly Category 1/ Tropical Storm force winds a long with waves and some storm surge.   Low lying areas and coastal communities will have some flooding.  Power outrages will be widespread across this region due to the strong winds.  There will be a threat of tornadoes,  but there will be few if any less.

-As always, the track and intensity of the storm can modify this afternoon and evening.  However, If this storm weakens to a Tropical Storm, It will still have a large impact on the regions weather.

-If anyone happens to capture any interesting or fascinating storm photos of waves, flooding, or etc, feel free to send it to me via email at postlejeb@yahoo.com or through facebook.  If anyone has any questions, feel free to comment under this post or send me an email. 


-I will post an updated 5 day forecast along with an update on Irene this evening. 


-NHC
-Weather Underground Tropical WX
-GFS Model
-NOAA storm surge simulation map