Good Evening Everyone
I have a lot to discuss with Hurricane Irene currently brewing in the Caribbean and what the weather will be during the week.
Hurricane Irene Update......
As of the 5 p.m. update, Hurricane Irene is currently a Category 2 Hurricane with max sustained winds of 80 mph. The storm is moving west-northwest at 13 mph. Hurricane Irene was located offshore the Dominican Republic. The storm is expected to make landfall over the Islands of the Bahamas as a Major Hurricane by the day Thursday.
After, The storm could remain off the Atlantic Coast of Florida and continue to move to the north-northeast and make landfall on the coast of the Carolinas or Mid Atlantic by this coming Saturday and Sunday.
Latest Computer Model Runs........
All the computer models have Irene moving through The Atlantic Ocean. One model has the storm making landfall near Miami. Two computer models have the storm remaining offshore Florida and making landfall in South Carolina. Three of the computer models track the storm further offshore, but some of those models have Irene making landfall over the Outer Banks of North Carolina and New England.
Latest Ensemble Model Runs.......
The Ensemble Model has Hurricane Irene making landfall over the Outer Banks of North Carolina, and making a second possible landfall over Southern New England.
Note.......
Remember, The track of Irene can always change due to the changing surrounding environment.
Anyone living on the east coast from Southern Florida to Northern Maine needs to watch the progress and development of Hurricane Irene over the next week. A lot of the computer models and Ensemble Runs have the storm making landfall somewhere along the east coast of the United States. I will keep you updated as Hurricane Irene moves closer to the United States.
Here are some links to track the progress of Hurricane Irene.....
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201109_ensmodel.html
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201109_model.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents
Note......
On the bottom of my blog, there are some Youtube videos of Hurricanes making landfall in New England. This will give you an ideal of what impacts storms have had in the past.
Analysis
High pressure will dominant the region through the day Wednesday. There is a disturbance over the Province of Alberta that will move into our region on the day Thursday. A cold front will move thru the region late in the day Thursday thru the early Friday. Hurricane Irene will threaten the region later in the day Sunday through early next week. Stay tuned......
Tuesday, August 23rd
Mostly Sunny with a few clouds. High temperatures in the 60s and 70s in Northern New England, 70s and 80s across Southern New England and Eastern NY. Winds from the west-northwest at 5-10 mph with higher gusts possible. Low temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Winds from the west-southwest switching to winds from the south overnight at 5-10 mph with higher gusts possible.
Wednesday, August 24th
Patchy fog. Mostly Sunny in the morning and afternoon. Clouds developing later in the afternoon and evening from west to east. More Humid. High temperatures in the 70s and 80s with cooler temperatures possible along Coastal Southern New England and Maine. Winds from the south-southwest at 5-15 mph with higher gusts possible. Low temperatures in the 60s to near 70. Winds from the south-southwest at 5-15 mph with higher gusts possible
Thursday, August 25th
Patchy fog. Partly cloudy with isolated showers and storms in the morning across Eastern NY and Western New England. Showers and storms moving from west to east throughout the day. Some storms may be severe. High temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Winds from the south-southwest at 5-15 mph with higher gusts possible. Low temperatures in the 40s and 50s to near 60 across the region.
Winds from the west-southwest switching to west-northwest at 5-10 mph with higher gusts possible.
Friday, August 26th
Partly cloudy in the morning with left over showers and storms, especially across Eastern New England. Sun and clouds in the afternoon and evening. High temperatures in the 60s and 70s across Northern New England, 70s and 80s across Southern New England. Winds from the west-northwest at 5-15 mph with higher gusts possible. Low temperatures in the 50s and 60s across Northern New England, 70s and 80s across Southern New England and Eastern NY. Winds from the west-northwest across Northern New England, Winds from the south-southwest across Southern New England and Eastern NY at 5-10 mph with higher gusts possible along the coast.
Saturday, August 27th
Partly cloudy with isolated showers and storms across Southern New England and Eastern NY. Clouds developing from south to north with showers and storms becoming more numerous as the afternoon and evening goes on. Downpours likely, especially later in the afternoon and evening. High temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Winds from the west-southwest at 5-15 mph with higher gusts possible along the coast. Low temperatures in the 60s to near 70. Winds from the west-southwest switching to winds from the east-southeast at 5-15 mph with the exception of Connecticut where winds will range from 15-30 mph with higher gusts possible along the sound.
Unisys Weather
GFS Model
NAM Model
Euro Model
NWS Surface analysis
Weather Underground
NHC
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