Afternoon Update

Good afternoon everyone,
Hope everyone is enjoying their friday afternoon. The threat of storms appears to be low as of now. There is not much in the way of sun.  There needs to be some sun to help de-stabilize the atmosphere.  The Cape values (Convective Available Potential Energy) is very low or not present across much of the region.  The highest Cape Value is around 500 across North Central Vermont. The lifted index, which is the difference in temperature between a parcel of air and the environmental temperature is very low across portions of Western Vermont and Eastern New York, with values as low as -4.  The wind shear is around 50 meters per second in North Central Vermont, and 40 meters per second across much of Eastern New York  and Northern New England.  I feel that the greatest chance of storms will be across Eastern New York and Western New England, But the storms that do develop have a lower chance of being Severe.  I can't rule out none of the storms being severe, as there is a small chance of some being strong.

If we do get some sunlight, or the cape/lifted index values increase and decrease, the storms will be more favorable for being severe. As of now, I am predicting the storms to be on the low side of being severe. The greatest impacts this afternoon will be showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rain, and some wind.