-Conditions are very favorable for storm development across Eastern New York and New England. The sun and clouds are present across much of the region, leading to the de-stabilizing of the atmosphere.
Currently on radar, there are a few heavy showers and storms across Western Connecticut, Eastern New York, Central Massachusetts, and parts of Northern New England. These showers and storms will continue to develop and move towards the east-southeast, associated with a cold front. Here is a look at the current radar for Southern New England. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=box&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no
-Here is a current look at the current radar for Northern New England
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=gyx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no
-Here is a current look at the current radar for Eastern New York
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=enx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no
There are a few Severe Thunderstorm Warnings across the region. Be the on the lookout for statements and warnings when issued for your area.
Some factors I will discuss are CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), Surface Lifting Index, and Wind Shear. Currently, the CAPE values are between 500 J/Kg to 3500 plus J/Kg across much of Southern New England, Eastern NY, and Northern New England. Remember, the CAPE measures the potential energy available in the atmosphere. The lifting Index values are very low across the region. The values range from -1 in Northern Maine to values as low as -9 across Southern Vermont, Berkshires, and parts of Eastern New York. Remember, the lifting index is the difference in temperature between the temperature of the environment and the temperature of a parcel of air rising from the surface. The Wind Shear is low across the region. The highest shear is around 30 meters/second across North Central Maine to 25 meters/second across West Central Vermont. Remember, the Wind Shear is the difference in wind speed between the surface and air aloft.
Based on this information, Scattered showers and storms will continue to develop across the region. A few of these storms could be Severe. As the afternoon and evening go on, conditions will become more favorable for storms to develop. Any storm that is severe will contain damaging winds, Hail, and heavy rain.
If you see dark clouds or hear thunder, take shelter.
-SPC
-NWS
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