Surface Analysis....
An area of high pressure is currently situated over Northern New England. There is a frontal zone from the Gulf Coast of Florida extending up to the Cape and Islands of Southern New England. A low is situated a long the front off the Carolina Coast. This vigorous low will move to the north and east and impact our region from this afternoon through tomorrow afternoon. The high in place across Northern New England will supply cold air in place to transition many locations from rain to snow or keep all snow in the higher elevations. All these elements, along with deep trough will set up for a historic October snowstorm for Eastern NY and New England.
Snowfall....
I posted a snowfall map for Eastern NY and New England late last night/early this morning through 2 posts. I apologize if it is hard to read. It looks like an drawing I would do as a kid. I am still exploring the paint program and will try to improve upon it.
Precipitation start Timing....
12-2PM: Southern Parts of Eastern NY and Southwestern CT
2-5PM: Hartford CT-Providence RI-Boston MA-Albany NY
5-8PM: Portland ME-Concord NH-Rutland VT
8-12AM: Bangor ME- North Country of New Hampshire-Montpelier VT
12-2AM: Northern Maine
Precipitation end Timing
8-11AM: Albany NY-Hartford CT
11-2PM: Boston MA-Providence RI-Manchester NH-Burlington VT
2-5PM: Portland ME-Concord NH
5-8PM: Bangor ME-North Country of NH
Winds...
Today: Winds from the east-northeast at 5-15 mph across Eastern NY and Western New England, 15-30 mph across Southern New England with gusts up to 45 mph + along the coast.
Tonight: Winds from the north-northeast switching to north-northwest at 10-25 mph across Southern New England, 5-15 mph across Eastern NY and Northern New England with gusts up to 45 mph + along the coast.
Tomorrow: Winds from the north-northwest at 10-20 mph across Eastern NY and Western New England, 20-30 mph across Eastern New England with gusts up to 40 mph + along the coast.
Tomorrow Night: Relatively light winds from the north-northwest across Eastern NY and Western New England, 5-15 mph across Eastern New England with gusts up to 30 mph + along the coast.
Impacts..
Heavy Wet Snow and Leaves on Tree...
The biggest impact with this storm is that there is still a good amount of leaves on the trees and this will be heavy wet snow event. The combination of the two plus the wind will lead to numerous trees being down and causing power outrages. Here is a nice graphic display of falliege across the northeast as of Thursday.
http://image.weather.com/images/maps/special/foliage_ne_cur_720x486.jpg
Waves and Surge along the coast..
Coastal communities of Eastern New England will have to be on guard for strong waves and winds from this storm. Be on alert for washed over roads and some power outrages.
Roads...
It will take some time for the roads to become icy and treacherous. The road temperatures are still warm and temperatures will be above freezing during the day for many across the region. However, when the rain transitions to snow and becomes heavy at night, roads will become icy.
Roads across higher elevations will be icy and treacherous. When traveling over higher elevations, use caution.
When out and about tonight and tomorrow morning, make sure you use caution and drive slow.
-GFS Model
-NAM Model
-Weather Channel Graphic Map
-NWS
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