Good Evening Everyone
I hope everyone is enjoying their day thus far. Another interesting weather event will be unfolding across New England and Eastern NY come later this evening through tomorrow morning. This will be a rain to snow event, mainly across Eastern NY, parts of interior Southern New England, and Northern New England.
Snowfall Map
The Rain snow line will be near or along the Interstate 95 corridor. Southeast Massachusetts, Parts of Downeast Maine, and coastal Rhode island and CT will see mostly heavy rain. 1-2 inches with heavier downpours and winds is likely in these areas. A Coating to 1" of snow is possible for areas south of Hartford, The Immediate Boston Area, Coastal New Hampshire, and parts of Coastal and Eastern Maine. 1-2" inches is possible along the Interstate 84 corridor, west of Interstate 495, Southern New Hampshire, and parts of Eastern Maine. 2-4" inches is possible for areas of extreme Northwestern CT, Mid-Hudson River Valley of NY, Central Massachusetts, Central New Hampshire, parts of Western Maine, Champlain valley of Vermont, and the Adirondack Mountains of Eastern NY. 4-8" inches of snow is possible across the Immediate Capital Region, North Central Vermont, Northern Connecticut River Valley, and Western Maine. 8-12" + is possible across the Northern Berkshires, Southern Green Mountains, Catskill Mountains, White Mountains, and the Mountains of Western Maine.
Surface Analysis:
Currently, there is a stationary front extending from the Canadian Maritimes down to the Gulf Coast. There are a couple lows or disturbances along the front. A low over the Carolinas will move to the Northeast. A secondary low will develop off the Delmarva Peninsula Wednesday Afternoon-Evening and move off the New England Coast Thursday morning. An area of high pressure is present over the Norther portion of the Province of Quebec. This will supply some of the cold air into the region.
Storm Advisories, Watches, and Warnings
1). Flood Watch issued for the entire state of Connecticut, Rhode island, parts of Southern and Eastern Massachusetts, and Southern parts of Eastern NY.
2). Wind Advisory issued for the Cape and Islands of Massachusetts.
3). Winter Weather Advisory issued for North Central Massachusetts, Southern New Hampshire, parts of Northern Central and Southern Vermont, the Immediate Capital Region of NY, and to the east of the mountain range in Maine from Southern Maine to Northern Maine.
4). Winter Storm Warnings issued for the Catkills Mountains and Schoharie Valley of Eastern NY, Rennselaer County NY, Berkshires of Eastern Massachusetts, Southern and Central Vermont, Western and Northern North Country Region of New Hampshire, and Northwestern Maine.
Storm Characteristics:
The Low will track near or along the stationary frontal boundary
Vorticity Maximum will be present over Southern New England. Heavy Precipitation (Rain) will occur in this area.
Cyclonic Positive Vorticity and advection will occur ahead and during the storm. This leads to good dynamical lifting across the region.
Large Plume of moisture ahead of the storm (Atmospheric River).
Large Plume of moisture ahead of the storm (Atmospheric River).
The cold air start to move in and push south through adiabatic cooling. This occurs when you have heavy precipitation and the cold air transitions down to the surface from the upper levels of the atmosphere.
A). Timing:
Periods of rain throughout the day across Eastern NY and Southern New England. It will be heavy at times. Rain will gradually move to the north across Northern New England throughout the afternoon and evening. The Rain will transition over to snow slowly from North to South starting in the afternoon and continuing into the overnight.
The storm will be fast in nature and develop late this afternoon and diminish later in the morning for Eastern NY, Early-mid afternoon for Southern New England, and late afternoon-early evening for Northern New England.
Winds:
Wednesday Night: North sustained winds at 5-10 mph across Eastern NY and Northern New England. Southwest sustained winds of 10-20 mph with gusts up to 50 mph along the coast of Southern New England.
Thursday Morning : West-Northwest sustained winds of 5-15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph across higher elevations across Northern New England. West-northwest sustained winds of 10-20 mph with gusts up to 50 mph across Southern New England and Eastern NY.
Impacts:
-Heavy snowfall from late evening through the early morning hours
-Threat of ice on roadways from the transition of rain to snow.
-Heavy rain and some flooding risk.
-Power outrages will occur in areas of heavy wet snow and high winds.
Look at the Radars:
Northeast Regional Radar...
Northeast Visible Satellite Radar
Northeast Infrared Satellite Radar
Note: As with any storm, the track and intensity can change as this event unfolds this evening through tomorrow morning. I will try to keep you updated as this event occurs.
-NWS Offices
-NWS Analysis
-GFS Model
-NAM Model
-HRRR Model
-NAM Model
-SREF Model
-SREF Model
